Keir Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.

Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.