Daily Murders in the nation Decline 37% During the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The average count of daily murders monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new official statistics. But, security analysts have advised that homicide figures may not signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Reduction in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of nearly 55 killings a day in November compared with roughly 87 when the President took the leadership in September. This data was delivered by the director of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen during these months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the least figure of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Historical Background and Official Plan

Intense cartel rivalries, alongside the administration's heavily military efforts to combat the cartels, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure reached a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her national security approach for an apparently sharper decline in homicides this year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state declared: “We have a plan, we have tracking of the plan, and we have detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central components of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Expert Caution and Statistical Limitations

Nevertheless, public safety analysts urged caution that using murder data to draw a conclusion of peace was flawed. This is notably true given the rise in other crimes such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just look at the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the identical period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some regions have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not reliable for assessing the situation of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to correctly identify and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly means of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it may mask days when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily mean makes surges of violence unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, per official figures. More than 20,000 weapons were seized and 311 tons of narcotics intercepted.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Anger

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with several regions in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors assassinated in the last year.

A short time after, many thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the country to voice their frustration at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government presents [data] in a manner to construct a story of safety. Politically it’s very potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.