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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed international climate meetings a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had backed the southern pitch.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit obstructed from the top if his administration led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is crucial to their success.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.